Seventh Annual Economic Summit looks back on down economy and predicts future

What could possibly be the theme of the Seventh Annual Economic Summit in Johnson City, TN in the middle of a the harshest recession in the country’s history? Maybe these ideas… “The economy may have found a bottom, there is a slight uptick, but the good old days are gone for good.”

According to keynote speaker University of Tennessee Economist Matt Murray , (see editorial in this issue), “The economy looks to be on the mend, but it will be a very different economy than what we’ve been accustomed to. It’s not going to be the same type of strong growth we/ve been accustomed to (between recessions in the 1980s, 90s, and 2000s). “ Murray suggested that employment, consumer spending, housing and manufacturing will not even come near pre-recession till 2012.

Even in 2012 the economy will look different. Manufacturing will continue to decay. “Most of the 8 million jobs that have been lost will not be coming back, but there will be some new occupations resulting in a difference between the skills unemployed workers have and the skills employers need. We are going to struggle to deal with the labor market issue for many quarters for many years to come.”

How can communities deal with the labor issues? Murray said through education….”It can make the fundamentals of your community stronger.” And the Tri-Cities region with ETSU, private colleges, and many technical colleges should focus on this feature.

Unemployment and commercial real estate

“Unemployment will remain in double digits through much of 2010 and there will be a further downturn in commercial real estate. We’ve got a glut of commercial real estate. It was a bit of a Ponzi scheme. We were on a spending spree and we had all this capacity built to meet our demand, which was built on easy credit.”

Murray did repeat several times throughout his address that he believes the economy has hit a bottom and maybe the only direction from here is up.. Certainly, other themes of the “Summit” assumed that there is hope for creative new business, entrepreneurship and capital investment.

Seminars in “Finding Angel Funding" for new business and opportunities for entrepreneurs through the “Will This Float” competition assumed that there is still a place for business ideas that will be successful in the American economy of the near future.

Individual committee meetings focused on specifics of how to encourage business development in Washington County from moving railroad lines for economic advantage, to developing advanced fiber optic capabilities, to streamlining business permit process in local government.